ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF FISCAL POLICY REFORMS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: EVIDENCE FROM POLICY-GENERATION QUALITY DYNAMICS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.67199/evxyn206Keywords:
Tax Reforms, Policy Generation, Economic Growth, Fiscal Policy, NigeriaAbstract
This study examined the effect of new tax reforms on economic growth in Nigeria, with emphasis on the role of policy generation between 2014 and 2024. The research was motivated by the increasing fiscal reforms introduced through the Finance Acts (2019–2023) and the 2024 Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms. An ex-post facto research design was adopted using secondary data obtained from the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Variables analysed included total tax revenue (TTR), company income tax (CIT), value-added tax (VAT), petroleum profit tax (PPT), and a constructed policy-generation quality index (POLQ). Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, correlation, and multiple regression analysis. Findings revealed that TTR, CIT, and VAT exerted positive and significant effects on economic growth, while PPT showed a negative but insignificant effect. The policy-generation quality index significantly moderated the relationship between tax reforms and economic growth, indicating that well-designed, credible, and coherent policies amplified the effectiveness of fiscal reforms. The study concluded that Nigeria’s tax reforms promoted economic growth primarily through improved non-oil revenue mobilisation and administrative efficiency. It recommended that future reforms should focus on strengthening policy coherence, deepening digital tax administration, and linking tax revenues to productive expenditure to achieve inclusive and sustainable growth.
Keywords: Tax Reforms, Policy Generation, Economic Growth, Fiscal Policy, Nigeria
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